Calculating combinatorial explosion: a tool for word of mouth marketing

I am not a big fan of the term 'viral marketing':  the swine flu pandemic (or H1N1 for those who think pigs are being unfairly singled out) has certainly reminded us that 'viral' things haven't historically been perceived positively...especially by those who are infected.  And yet, some in marketing and PR circles continue to let the term fly when discussing why social media should matter.

Word of mouth, on the other hand, seems to focus more explicitly on all that is wunderbar with social media. Influencers tell influencers who tell influencers...and so on and so on...and when it's digital, it's free!

Of course, when everyone is an influencer at some level, marketers might wonder just how many influencers it takes to get a critical mass of pass-alongers. One tool to help in the planning stages uses simple factorial math to calculate the reach that a viral word of mouth approach might achieve.

I've posted a simple spreadsheet version of the tool you can download on the Dialogue Marketing website, here. (MS Excel file)

The idea is relatively straightforward: capture a few assumptions and see how many people you might actually reach.

The assumptions in the tool include:

1. Number of initial influencers (or seeds) the campaign will contact
2. Expected pass along (i.e., retweet, email, linkback) percentage
3. Number of  people these influencers will reach
4. The number of pass along cycles (the 'and so on' part)

By structuring the capture of assumptions, enabling easy development of goal scenarios, and keeping the math in the background, the tool provides campaign planners with an easy to use expectation setter.

Try it out and let me know what you think.

Why 'viral marketing' is wrong

For one thing, because the term 'viral' isn't usually associated with anything positive--especially online. But lest I appear to be quibbling over terminology, I offer reason number 2:

Because 'viral' appears to be a wholly inaccurate description of how word of mouth actually works online...don't beleive me, though, beleive Science!

A study funded by the National Science Foundation tracked how a few of those notorius 'chain emails' made their way from inbox to inbox...you know the type...someone fowards you something funny, inspiring or blood boiling...along with the 12 or 13 other 'forwards' that got it to the person before you.

Turns out that messages travel in a much more complex, less direct ways than the disease transmission model would suggest.

From the summary:

"Rather than spreading like a virus, with each message producing many direct "descendents" in the tree diagram, the data suggest that people are selective in forwarding messages to others in their social networks. For example, the researchers discovered that 90 percent of the time, the messages produced only a single descendent."

We've developed a modeller to show the effect of assumptions about pass-along rates in word of mouth campaigns for our clients...I think we will continue to use the most conservative assumptions moving forward.

In addition to specific implications in crafting word of mouth campaigns, this study reiterates how real life communications are usually far more complicated than neat and tidy marketing explanations suggest. Who'd have thought?

For an eye opening commentary on the struggle between art and science, YouTube brings you: Thomas Dolby

Viral marketing for the uninfected

As much as I decry use of the wholly unhygienic term 'viral' to describe marketing--especially online--Facebook recently released it's 'Insider's Guide to Viral Marketing'. Go ahead, take one down, pass it around...99 (billion) copies of the guide on the wall.

Specifically the guide describes how to use Facebook Pages (as distinct from your Facebook profile) for marketing your business. Nothing earth shattering. Could have been just as easily titled "Facebook Pages for n00bs" but that might get them pwnd for being 1337 ists.

On the other hand, it's a nice, concise guide for initiating a dialogue with the uninitiated, especially in client organizations where the Facebook platform may be viewed as something that 'the kids do'.

As Facebook the company evolves, they are clearly building a platform (i.e., a network) for enabling the social connections that make all of us--of any age--human. Marketing is just one more application running on the social network.